Monarch PMS expects gold prices to trade between $4,300-$4,700 an ounce and silver at $70-$85/ounce by end-2026 as its base case, with a 55 per cent probability.
The scenario assumes the US Federal Reserve holds rates through September, energy prices normalise, real yields plateau and central banks maintain purchases of about 250 tonnes a quarter.
The bear case, with a 20 per cent probability, sees gold at $3,400-$3,900/ounce and silver at $45-$55/ounce if the Fed delivers a rate hike in September, oil falls further, and disinflation turns into demand weakness.
In the bull case, assigned a 25 per cent probability, gold could reach $5,000-$5,600/ounce and silver $95-$120/ounce if weakness in the labour-market forces the Fed to ease repo rates, real yields roll over, institutional reallocation into precious metals resumes and physical tightness in silver returns.
Silver’s supply-demand fundamentals also remain supportive, with a sixth consecutive annual deficit, 762 million ounces drawn from above-ground stocks since 2021 and mine supply broadly flat for a decade. With paper claims on COMEX roughly 5.6 times registered physical inventory, Monarch expects physical tightness to amplify upside moves if demand strengthens.
Monarch PMS’s valuation framework provides an anchor to these scenarios. It places gold’s modelled value at $3,248-$4,595, with a $3,922 midpoint, while silver’s modelled range is $54-$77, with a $65 midpoint. Gold’s June low of $3,985 was within roughly 2 per cent of its modelled midpoint, while silver at $61.7 remained below its midpoint, making it the cheaper of the two on this framework.
The gold-silver ratio has also normalised, rising from 46 times at January’s peak to about 69 times today, close to its 21st-century average. Monarch PMS uses 60 times as its model’s benchmark. This means silver has given back much of its earlier outperformance and now looks relatively cheaper than gold.
Published on August 28, 2026
