Patna: Just over 100 days after taking office, Bihar chief minister Samrat Choudhary faces his first major electoral test on Thursday as the BJP seeks to retain its Bankipur assembly seat in a bypoll being closely watched for its political messaging beyond Bihar.The bypoll to the BJP bastion, vacated by the party’s national president Nitin Nabin, is being held against the backdrop of nationwide student protests over the alleged NEET-UG paper leak, making it the first election where the BJP will be tested amid widespread youth anger.Political analysts said the outcome could have implications for national politics and the BJP’s electoral strategy ahead of assembly elections in key states.Located in central Patna, Bankipur has remained a BJP stronghold for the past 31 years. The party won the seat even when it was in the opposition in Bihar — in 1995, 2000 and 2005 during the RJD rule, and again in 2015 under Nitish Kumar-led Grand Alliance govt.This time, however, the BJP heads the state govt with Samrat as chief minister, raising the political stakes considerably.Following the students’ protests, the BJP has been campaigning aggressively to retain the seat and avoid any perception that it is losing its grip over voters, particularly the youth.“It was for the first time that the protest by Gen Z challenged the slogan of Hindutva. If the BJP loses elections, it will give a new narrative for the emerging political culture in the country and it will have to reset its poll strategy with the next assembly elections due in key states like Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Punjab,” explained political analyst professor B N Prasad.Political analyst professor D M Diwakar, former director of the Patna-based A N Sinha Institute of Social Studies said the BJP has far more at stake than a single assembly seat.“The election is not merely a contest to elect an MLA but as a crucial test of political legacy, organisational strength and public support. Bankipur has been the BJP bastion where the party has not lost any election in over three decades. Any adverse performance will put the party on the mat,” said Diwakar.Reflecting on the importance attached to the contest, the BJP deployed an army of NDA ministers, former ministers, MPs and MLAs to campaign for its candidate Neeraj Kumar Sinha. The party replaced its original nominee Abhishek Kumar Sinha alias Bunty after his parents were linked to the fodder scam.National BJP president Nitin Nabin and the CM personally joined the campaign, going door-to-door and appealing for votes. Nabin had represented the constituency continuously since 1995 after succeeding his late father, Navin Kishore Prasad Sinha.Former CM Nitish Kumar also released a video appeal asking voters to support the BJP candidate. The party further intensified its outreach through bike rallies, Adhivakta Samwad, Chikitsa Samwad, roadshows and mass contact drives.The contest has also gained prominence with Jan Suraaj founder Prashant Kishor entering the electoral fray for the first time. Campaigning extensively, Kishor appealed to voters to cast their votes for their children’s future.Despite several prominent leaders leaving Jan Suraaj, he remained visible through mohalla meetings, adda baithaks, chai baithaks, padyatras, interactions with intellectuals and Jan Samwad programmes, while criticising the NDA for employing Jeevika Didis in the election campaign.RJD candidate Rekha Gupta was largely left to campaign on her own until the party’s national working president, Tejashwi Prasad Yadav, returned from a foreign tour just ahead of polling. On his return, Tejashwi conducted intensive roadshows for two consecutive days, and it remains to be seen how much impact his late campaign push has on the contest.According to political observers, Kayasthas account for around 14% of the electorate in the constituency, explaining why the BJP has consistently fielded candidates from the community. They are followed by Yadavs (12%), Muslims, Chandravanshi and Vaishya communities (9% each), Dalits and Bhumihars (8% each), Brahmins (7%), and Rajputs and Kurmis (5% each).With the BJP defending a fortress it has held on to for over three decades and amid the fallout of the NEET-UG paper leak protests, the Bankipur bypoll has assumed significance far beyond the election of a single MLA. Analysts believe the verdict will serve as an early indicator of whether student anger has translated into an electoral challenge for the ruling party and could shape the political narrative ahead of upcoming state elections.
